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Forecasting
Accurate forecasting of in-line or emerging products requires the intelligent confluence of a multitude of variables. Product profile, competitive position, price, and promotional effort all need to be factored when considering an opportunity's potential revenue stream. At Trinity, we have extensive forecasting experience from production forecasting to strategic planning and everything in between. Our team blends epidemiology, benchmarking analyses, primary and secondary data sources, and advanced forecasting tools. We utilize regression modeling, systems dynamics, and Monte Carlo simulation to produce sophisticated models. The resultant output clearly aligns with product strategy and contains well-documented assumptions easily communicated to all team members.
Trinity has expertise in numerous therapeutic categories ranging from primary care therapeutics to specialty biotech proteins. We are experts in working with secondary data sources such as IMS, NDC, and Scott-Levin. We specialize in long-term support of products or business development groups and pride ourselves on unrivaled analysis and accuracy. Trinity blends the advantages of an objective third-party point of view with the benefits of dedicated expert resource to optimize our clients' understanding of their business.
CASE EXAMPLE
Situation
Our client required a forecast model constructed to integrate their anti-infective franchise business plan with business development valuations. The output allowed for a clear delineation of synergistic or negative impacts of new business opportunities vis-à-vis the current franchise.
Approach
Using a variety of primary and secondary data, a condition-specific model was constructed that incorporated both short and long-term forecasting capacity. Flexible inputs included market definition, market growth, share, and valuation parameters. The model was set-up to easily load and trend monthly and annual data and was fully Monte Carlo-capable.
Result
The current franchise and business development teams utilize the integrated forecast model that is the centerpiece of the anti-infective business strategy. In collaboration with the client, the model is updated multiple times a year and provides transparency to the assumptions around impacts of franchise strategies and new business opportunities. It also provides a medium for standardized analysis and outputs impacting the therapeutic area.
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